NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices

Orley C. Ashenfelter, Karl Storchmann

NBER Working Paper No. 16037
Issued in May 2010
NBER Program(s):   EEE   IO   CH

In this paper we measure the effect of year to year changes in the weather on wine prices and winery revenue in the Mosel Valley in Germany in order to determine the effect that climate change is likely to have on the income of wine growers. A novel aspect of our analysis is that we compare the estimates based on auction, retail, and wholesale prices.

Although auction prices are based on actual transactions, they provide a thick market only for high quality, expensive wines and may overestimate climate’s effect on farmer revenues. Wholesale prices, on the other hand, do provide broad coverage of all wines sold and probably come closest to representing the revenues of farmers. Overall, we estimate a 1°C increase in temperature would yield an increase in farmer revenue of about 30 percent.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w16037

Published: Orley Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann, 2010. "Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 51-64, August.

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