TY  - JOUR
AU  - Levchenko,Andrei A.
AU  - Lewis,Logan T.
AU  - Tesar,Linda L.
TI  - The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 16006
PY  - 2010
Y2  - May 2010
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16006
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16006.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Andrei Levchenko
Department of Economics
University of Michigan
611 Tappan Street
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Tel: 734/764-3296
E-Mail: alev@umich.edu

Logan Lewis
Division of International Finance
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Mail Stop 18
20th & C St. NW
Washington, DC 20551
E-Mail: logan.t.lewis@frb.gov

Linda Tesar
Department of Economics
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI  48109-1220
Tel: 734/763 6015
Fax: 734/764-2769
E-Mail: ltesar@umich.edu
AB  - One of the most striking aspects of the recent recession is the collapse in international trade. This paper uses disaggregated data on U.S. imports and exports to shed light on the anatomy of this collapse. We find that the recent reduction in trade relative to overall economic activity is far larger than in previous downturns. Information on quantities and prices of both domestic absorption and imports reveals a 40% shortfall in imports, relative to what would be predicted by a simple import demand relationship. In a sample of imports and exports disaggregated at the 6-digit NAICS level, we find that sectors used as intermediate inputs experienced significantly higher percentage reductions in both imports and exports. We also find support for compositional effects: sectors with larger reductions in domestic output had larger drops in trade. By contrast, we find no support for the hypothesis that trade credit played a role in the recent trade collapse.
ER  -