Division of International Finance
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Mail Stop 18
20th & C St. NW
Washington, DC 20551
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2010||The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun|
with Andrei A. Levchenko, Linda L. Tesar: w16006
One of the most striking aspects of the recent recession is the collapse in international trade. This paper uses disaggregated data on U.S. imports and exports to shed light on the anatomy of this collapse. We find that the recent reduction in trade relative to overall economic activity is far larger than in previous downturns. Information on quantities and prices of both domestic absorption and imports reveals a 40% shortfall in imports, relative to what would be predicted by a simple import demand relationship. In a sample of imports and exports disaggregated at the 6-digit NAICS level, we find that sectors used as intermediate inputs experienced significantly higher percentage reductions in both imports and exports. We also find support for compositional effects: sectors with larger red...
Published: Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.