Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

Asher A. Blass, Saul Lach, Charles F. Manski

NBER Working Paper No. 14451
Issued in October 2008
NBER Program(s):Environment and Energy Economics, Industrial Organization

When data on actual choices are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes pose choice scenarios and ask respondents to state the actions they would choose if they were to face these scenarios. The data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated choices may differ from actual ones because researchers typically provide respondents with less information than they would have facing actual choice problems. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about their behavior. This paper shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models with random coefficients and applies the methodology to estimate preferences for electricity reliability in Israel.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w14451

Published: Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2010. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities To Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences For Electricity Reliability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 421-440, 05. citation courtesy of

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