NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?

Jessica Wachter

NBER Working Paper No. 14386*
Issued in October 2008
NBER Program(s):   AP    EFG

This paper introduces a model in which the probability of a rare disaster varies over time. I show that the model can account for the high equity premium and high volatility in the aggregate stock market. At the same time, the model generates a low mean and volatility for the government bill rate, as well as economically significant excess stock return predictability. The model is set in continuous time, assumes recursive preferences and is solved in closed-form. It is shown that recursive preferences, as well as time-variation in the disaster probability, are key to the model's success.

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