The Forward Premium is Still a Puzzle
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NBER Working Paper No. 13129
Issued in May 2007
NBER Program(s): AP IFM
Lustig and Verdelhan (2007) argue that the excess returns to borrowing US dollars and lending in foreign currency "compensate US investors for taking on more US consumption growth risk," yet the stochastic discount factor corresponding to their benchmark model is approximately uncorrelated with the returns they study. Hence, one cannot reject the null hypothesis that their model explains none of the cross-sectional variation of the expected returns. Given this finding, and other evidence, I argue that the forward premium puzzle remains a puzzle.
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An online appendix is available for this publication.
This paper was revised on June 7, 2011 Acknowledgments
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