Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns

Ravi Bansal, Robert Dittmar, Dana Kiku

NBER Working Paper No. 13108
Issued in May 2007
NBER Program(s):   AP   EFG

We argue that the cointegrating relation between dividends and consumption, a measure of long run consumption risks, is a key determinant of risk premia at all investment horizons. As the investment horizon increases, transitory risks disappear, and the asset's beta is dominated by long run consumption risks. We show that the return betas, derived from the cointegration-based VAR (EC-VAR) model, successfully account for the crosssectional variation in equity returns at both short and long horizons; this is not the case when the cointegrating restriction is ignored. Our evidence highlights the importance of cointegration-based long run consumption risks for financial markets.

(246 K)

Published: Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2009. "Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1343-1375, March.

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