Years of Service and Probability of Promotion
NBER Working Paper No. 1191
This study provides evidence which we believe challenges some conventional assumptions about the promotion process. Based on survey information collected from a large random sample of U.S. private sector firms, we reach two main conclusions. First,seniority independent of productivity appears to play a significant role even in nonunion promotion decisions. Second, the differences between union and nonunion promotion processes, at least with regard to the weight assigned to seniority per se, appear to be important but less dramatic than is popularly supposed.
Published: Abraham, Katharine G. and James L. Medoff. "Length of Service and Promotions in Union and Nonunion Work Groups," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Vo. 38, No. 3, April 1985, pp. 408-420.