Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation
NBER Working Paper No. 514 (Also Reprint No. r0185)
Demographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper. Three primary conclusions emerge. First, both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes in the labor market. Second, young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation. Third, failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effect of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups. If participation did not surge, reduction in overall unemployment to its 1969 level would reduce the unemployment of almost all demographic groups to very low levels.
Published: Clark, Kim B. and Summers, Lawrence H. "Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation." The Journal of Human Resources, Vol. XVI, (Winter 1981), pp. 61-79.