NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity

Robert J. Barro, Mark Rush

NBER Working Paper No. 339
Issued in April 1979
NBER Program(s):   EFG

This paper discusses ongoing research on the relation of money to economic activity in the post-World War I1 United States. As in previous work, the stress is on the distinction between anticipated and unanticipated movements of money. Part I deals with annual data. Aside from updating and refinements of earlier analysis, the principal new results concern joint, cross-equation estimation and testing of the money growth, unemployment, output and price level equations. The present findings raise some doubts about the specification of the price equation, although the other relations receive further statistical support. Part I1 applies the analysis to quarterly data. Despite the necessity to deal with pronounced serial correlation of residuals in the equations for unemployment, output and the price level, the main results are consistent with those obtained from annual data. Further, the quarterly estimates allow a detailed description of the lagged response of unemployment and output to money shocks. The estimates reveal some lack of robustness in the price equation, which again suggests some misspecification of this relation.

download in pdf format
   (2648 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (2648 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w0339

Published:

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Barro and Rush Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity
Barro and Hercowitz w0329 Money Stock Revisions and Unanticipated Money Growth
Mishkin w0506 Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation
Makin w0760 Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us