Two Papers on the Recent Rise in U.S. Divorce Rate

This paper seeks to explain the recent rise in U.S. divorce rates using an economic framework. Annual time series data from 1920 to 1974 are used in the empirical analysis. The estimated equation tracks the actual series quite well. It attributes the recent increase in divorce to improved contraceptive technology, reduced average duration of marriage (resulting from the age distribution of the population) and income growth. Projections suggest a flattening of the divorce rate series in the near future.