NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Vector Multiplicative Error Models: Representation and Inference

Fabrizio Cipollini, Robert F. Engle, Giampiero M. Gallo

NBER Technical Working Paper No. 331
Issued in November 2006
NBER Program(s):   AP   TWP

The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for positive valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multi-variate extension of such a model, by taking into consideration the possibility that the vector innovation process be contemporaneously correlated. The estimation procedure is hindered by the lack of probability density functions for multivariate positive valued random variables. We suggest the use of copulafunctions and of estimating equations to jointly estimate the parameters of the scale factors and of the correlations of the innovation processes. Empirical applications on volatility indicators are used to illustrate the gains over the equation by equation procedure.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/t0331

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