The Concept of Long Term Interest Rates

Frederick R. Macaulay, Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856 (NBER, 1938), chap. 2, https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/some-theoretical-problems-suggested-movements-interest-rates-bond-yields-and-stock-prices-united/concept-long-term-interest-rates.