Climate Change and Downstream Water Quality in Agricultural Production: The Case of Nutrient Runoff to the Gulf of Mexico

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer use in agricultural production is a significant determinant of surface water quality. As climate changes, agricultural producers are likely to adapt at extensive and intensive margins in terms of planted acreage and per ha input use, including fertilizers. These changes can affect downstream water quality. We investigate the effect of climate-driven land productivity changes on water quality in the Gulf of Mexico using an integrated hydro-economic agricultural land use (IHEAL) model. Our results indicate that land and N use adaptation in agricultural production to climate change increases N delivery to the Gulf of Mexico by 0.5 to 1.6 percent (1,690 to 5,980 metric tons) relative to the baseline scenario with no climate change.