NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The NBER Reporter 2016 Number 4

Program and Working Group Meetings


Economic Fluctuations and Growth
Monetary Economics
International Finance and Macroeconomics
Asset Pricing
Market Design
Political Economy
Public Economics
Health Care
Corporate Finance


Behavioral Finance
Economics of Education
Labor Studies
Organizational Economics
Chinese Economy
Cohort Studies
International Trade and Investment
Entrepreneurship
Development

Economic Fluctuations and Growth

The NBER's Program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth met in Chicago on October 21. Research Associates Steven J. Davis of the University of Chicago and Guido Menzio of the University of Pennsylvania organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Xavier Gabaix, Harvard University and NBER, "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model"

    Alessandro Gavazza, London School of Economics; Simon Mongey, New York University; and Giovanni Violante, New York University and NBER, "Aggregate Recruiting Intensity" (NBER Working Paper No. 22677)

    François Geerolf, University of California, Los Angeles, "A Theory of Pareto Distributions"

    Neil Mehrotra, Brown University, and Dmitriy Sergeyev, Bocconi University (Milan), "Financial Shocks and Job Flows"

    Pablo Kurlat, Stanford University and NBER, "The Social Value of Financial Expertise" (NBER Working Paper No. 22047)

    Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, and Domenico Giannone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Vulnerable Growth"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/EFGf16/summary.html

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Monetary Economics

The NBER's Program on Monetary Economics met in Cambridge on October 28. Research Associate Ricardo J. Caballero of MIT and Faculty Research Fellow Eric R. Sims of the University of Notre Dame organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Joshua Hausman and Paul Rhode, University of Michigan and NBER, and Johannes Wieland, University of California, San Diego, and NBER, "Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933"

    Florian Heider and Glenn Schepens, European Central Bank, and Farzad Saidi, Stockholm School of Eco-nomics, "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates"

    Adrien Auclert, Stanford University and NBER, and Matthew Rognlie, Princeton University, "Inequality and Aggregate Demand"

    Xavier Gabaix, Harvard University and NBER, "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model"

    Òscar Jordà, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn; and Alan M. Taylor, University of California, Davis, and NBER, "Large and State-Dependent Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments"

    Vladimir Asriyan, Luca Fornaro, and Alberto Martin, CREI (Barcelona); and Jaume Ventura, CREI and NBER, "Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World" (NBER Working Paper No. 22639)

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/MEf16/summary.html

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International Finance and Macroeconomics

The NBER's Program on International Finance and Macroeconomics met in Cambridge on October 28. Research Associates Ariel Burstein of the University of California, Los Angeles, and Charles Engel of the University of Wisconsin-Madison organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Luca Fornaro, CREI (Barcelona), and Federica Romei, Stockholm School of Economics, "Aggregate Demand Externalities in a Global Liquidity Trap"

    Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo, Northwestern University and NBER, and Benjamin Johannsen, Federal Reserve Board, "On the Empirical Determinants of Nominal Exchange Rates"

    Manuel Amador, University of Minnesota and NBER; Javier Bianchi, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and NBER; Luigi Bocola, Northwestern University and NBER; and Fabrizio Perri, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound"

    Vahid Gholampour, Bucknell University, and Eric van Wincoop, University of Virginia and NBER, "What Can We Learn from Euro-Dollar Tweets?"

    Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; Thomas Philippon, New York University and NBER; and Dimitri Vayanos, London School of Economics and NBER, "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis" (NBER Working Paper No. 22370)

    Ricardo J. Caballero and Alp Simsek, MIT and NBER, "A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment: Global Liquidity Creation and Reach for Safety and Yield" (NBER Working Paper No. 22751)

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/IFMf16/summary.html

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Asset Pricing

The NBER's Program on Asset Pricing met in Palo Alto on October 28. Faculty Research Fellow Valentin Haddad of University of California, Los Angeles, and Research Associate Motohiro Yogo of Princeton University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Tarek A. Hassan, University of Chicago and NBER; Thomas Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; and Tony Zhang, University of Chicago, "Currency Manipulation"

    Hanno Lustig, Stanford University and NBER, and Adrien Verdelhan, MIT and NBER, "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?" (NBER Working Paper No. 22023)

    Harrison Hong, Columbia University and NBER; Frank Weikai Li, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; and Jiangmin Xu, Peking University (Beijing), "Climate Risks and Market Efficiency"

    Stephan Jank and Christoph Roling, Deutsche Bundesbank, and Esad Smajlbegovic, Erasmus University Rotterdam, "Flying under the Radar: The Effects of Short-Sale Disclosure Rules on Investor Behavior and Stock Prices"

    Terrence Hendershott and Dmitry Livdan, University of California, Berkeley; Dan Li, Federal Reserve Board; and Norman Schürhoff, University of Lausanne, "Relationship Trading in OTC Markets"

    Viral V. Acharya, New York University and NBER; Tim Eisert, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Christian Eufinger, IESE Business School (Barcelona); and Christian Hirsch, Goethe University Frankfurt, "Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/APf16/summary.html

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Market Design

The NBER's Working Group on Market Design met in Cambridge on October 28–29. Codirectors Michael Ostrovsky of Stanford University and Parag A. Pathak of MIT organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Darrell Duffie, Stanford University and NBER, and Haoxiang Zhu, MIT and NBER, "Size Discovery" (NBER Working Paper No. 21696)

    Ahmad Peivandi, Georgia State University, "Participation and Unbiased Pricing in CDS Settlement Mechanisms"

    Laura Doval, Yale University, "A Theory of Stability in Dynamic Matching Markets"

    Hugo Hopenhayn, University of California, Los Angeles, and NBER, and Maryam Saeedi, Carnegie Mellon University, "Bidding Dynamics in Auctions" (NBER Working Paper No. 22716)

    Oleg Baranov, University of Colorado Boulder; Christina Aperjis, Power Auctions LLC; Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland; and Thayer Morrill, North Carolina State University, "Efficient Procurement Auctions with Increasing Returns"

    Tibor Heumann, Princeton University, "Ascending Auction with Multidimensional Signals"

    John Hatfield, University of Texas at Austin, and Scott Duke Kominers, Harvard University, "Hidden Substitutes"

    Paul Milgrom, Stanford University, "Deferred Acceptance Auctions without Substitutes"

    Gabriel Carroll and Ilya Segal, Stanford University, "Robustly Optimal Auctions with Unknown Resale Opportunities"

    Songzi Du, Simon Fraser University, "Robust Mechanisms under Common Valuation"

    Shengwu Li, Stanford University, "Obviously Strategy-Proof Mechanisms"

    Marek Pycia, University of California, Los Angeles, and Peter Troyan, University of Virginia, "Obvious Dominance and Random Priority"

    Benjamin Roth, MIT, and Ran Shorrer, Pennsylvania State University, "Making It Safe to Use Centralized Markets: Epsilon-Dominant Individual Rationality and Applications to Market Design"

    Michal Feldman, Tel Aviv University; Nicole Immorlica, Brendan Lucier, and Vasilis Syrgkanis, Microsoft Research; and Tim Roughgarden, Stanford University, "Efficiency Guarantees in Large Markets"

    David Delacrétaz, University of Melbourne; Scott Duke Kominers; and Alexander Teytelboym, University of Oxford, "Refugee Resettlement"

    Tommy Andersson, Lund University, and Lars Ehlers, Université de Montréal, "Assigning Refugees to Landlords in Sweden: Stable Maximum Matchings"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/MDf16/summary.html

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Political Economy

The NBER's Program on Political Economy met in Cambridge on November 4. Director Alberto F. Alesina of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Jonathan Schulz, Yale University, "The Church's Ban on Consanguineous Marriages, Extended Kin-Groups, and Democracy"

    David N. Figlio, Northwestern University and NBER; Paola Giuliano, University of California, Los Angeles, and NBER; Umut Özek, American Institutes for Research; and Paola Sapienza, Northwestern University and NBER, "Long-Term Orientation and Educational Performance" (NBER Working Paper No. 22541)

    Claudia Olivetti, Boston College and NBER; M. Daniele Paserman, Boston University and NBER; and Laura Salisbury, York University and NBER, "Three-Generation Mobility in the United States, 1850–1940: The Role of Maternal and Paternal Grandparents" (NBER Working Paper No. 22094)

    Edward L. Glaeser and Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University and NBER, and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto, CREI (Barcelona), "Securing Property Rights" (NBER Working Paper No. 22701)

    Murat Iyigun, University of Colorado Boulder; Nathan Nunn, Harvard University and NBER; and Nancy Qian, Yale University and NBER, "Winter Is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict"

    Julia Cagé, Sciences Po (Paris), and Nicolas Hervé and Marie-Luce Viaud, Institut National de l'Audiovisuel (Bry-sur-Marne, France), "The Production of Information in an Online World: Is Copy Right?"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/POLf16/summary.html

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Public Economics

The NBER's Program on Public Economics met in Cambridge on November 3–4. Codirectors Amy Finkelstein of MIT and Raj Chetty of Stanford University and Research Associate Jonathan Gruber of MIT organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Florian Scheuer, Stanford University and NBER, and Iván Werning, MIT and NBER, "Mirrlees Meets Diamond-Mirrlees" (NBER Working Paper No. 22076)

    Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, and Stefanie Stantcheva, Harvard University and NBER, "A Simpler Theory of Optimal Capital Taxation"

    Raj Chetty, David Grusky, and Maximilian Hell, Stanford University; Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University and NBER; Robert Manduca, Harvard University; and Jimmy Narang, University of California, Berkeley, "The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility in the U.S." (subsequently posted as NBER Working Paper No. 22910)

    Dmitry Taubinsky, Dartmouth College and NBER, and Alex Rees-Jones, University of Pennsylvania, "Attention Variation and Welfare: Theory and Evidence from a Tax Salience Experiment" (NBER Working Paper No. 22545)

    John Beshears, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian, Harvard University and NBER; James J. Choi, Yale University and NBER; Christopher D. Clayton, Harvard University; and Christopher Harris, University of Cambridge, "Optimal Illiquidity"

    Matthew C. Weinzierl, Harvard University and NBER, "Popular Acceptance of Inequality Due to Brute Luck and Support for Classical Benefit-Based Taxation" (NBER Working Paper No. 22462)

    Brian G. Knight, Brown University and NBER, and Nathan M. Schiff, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, "The Out of State Tuition Distortion"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/PEf16/summary.html

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Health Care

The NBER's Program on Health Care met in Cambridge on November 4. Director Jonathan Gruber of MIT and Research Associates Amy Finkelstein of MIT and Raj Chetty of Stanford University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Vilsa Curto, Stanford University; Liran Einav, Jonathan D. Levin, and Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford University and NBER; and Amy Finkelstein, "Health Care Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare"

    Michael D. Frakes, Duke University and NBER, and Jonathan Gruber, "Defensive Medicine: Evidence from Military Immunity"

    Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University and NBER, "Measuring Ex-Ante Welfare in Insurance Markets"

    Jason Abaluck, Yale University and NBER; Leila Agha, Dartmouth College and NBER; and David C. Chan, Jr., Stanford University and NBER, "Discretion and Guidelines: Evidence from Warfarin Administration"

    Sonia P. Jaffe, University of Chicago, and Mark Shepard, Harvard University and NBER, "Price-Linked Subsidies and Health Insurance Markups"

    Emily Oster, Brown University and NBER, "Does Disease Cause Vaccination? Disease Outbreaks and Vaccination Response" (NBER Working Paper No. 22464)

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/HCf16/summary.html

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Corporate Finance

The NBER's Program on Corporate Finance met in Cambridge on November 4. Research Associate Malcolm Baker and Faculty Research Fellow Samuel Hanson, both of Harvard University, organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Jason R. Donaldson and Giorgia Piacentino, Washington University in St Louis, and Denis Gromb, HEC Paris, "The Paradox of Pledgeability"

    Marco Di Maggio, Harvard University and NBER; Amir Kermani, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; and Christopher Palmer, University of California, Berkeley, "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel" (NBER Working Paper No. 22638)

    Sumit Agarwal, Georgetown University; Souphala Chomsisengphet, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; Neale Mahoney, University of Chicago and NBER; and Johannes Stroebel, New York University and NBER, "Do Banks Pass through Credit Expansions to Consumers Who Want to Borrow? Evidence from Credit Cards" (NBER Working Paper No. 21567)

    Hong Ru, Nanyang Technological University, and Antoinette Schoar, MIT and NBER, "Do Credit Card Companies Screen for Behavioral Biases?" (NBER Working Paper No. 22360)

    Olivier Dessaint, University of Toronto; Thierry Foucault, HEC Paris; Laurent Frésard, University of Maryland; and Adrien Matray, Princeton University, "Ripple Effects of Noise on Corporate Investment"

    Jean-Noel Barrot, MIT, and Ramana Nanda, Harvard University and NBER, "Can Paying Firms Quicker Affect Aggregate Employment?" (NBER Working Paper No. 22420)

    Aleksander Andonov, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Yael Hochberg, Rice University and NBER; and Joshua Rauh, Stanford University and NBER, "Political Representation and Governance: Evidence from the Investment Decisions of Public Pension Funds"

    Alan M. Benson, University of Minnesota; Danielle Li, Harvard University; and Kelly Shue, University of Chicago and NBER, "Can Promotion Tournaments Produce Bad Managers? Evidence of the 'Peter Principle' "

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/CFf16/summary.html

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Behavioral Finance

The NBER's Working Group on Behavioral Finance met in Cambridge on November 5. Director Nicholas C. Barberis of Yale University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Ulrike Malmendier, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; Demian Pouzo, University of California, Berkeley; and Victoria Vanasco, Stanford University, "A Theory of Experience Effects"

    Chen Lian, MIT, and Yueran Ma and Carmen Y. Wang, Harvard University, "Low Interest Rates and Risk Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions"

    Anthony A. DeFusco and Charles G. Nathanson, Northwestern University, and Eric Zwick, University of Chicago and NBER, "Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume"

    Antonio Gargano, University of Melbourne, and Alberto G. Rossi, University of Maryland, "Does it Pay to Pay Attention?"

    Santosh Anagol, University of Pennsylvania; Vimal Balasubramaniam, University of Oxford; and Tarun Ramadorai, Imperial College London, "Endowment Effects in the Field: Evidence from India's IPO Lotteries"

    Michael Bailey, Facebook; Ruiqing Cao, Harvard University; Theresa Kuchler, New York University; and Johannes Stroebel, New York University and NBER, "Social Networks and Housing Markets" (NBER Working Paper No. 22258)

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/BFf16/summary.html

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Economics of Education

The NBER's Program on the Economics of Education met in Palo Alto on November 10–11. Director Caroline M. Hoxby of Stanford University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Judith Scott-Clayton, Columbia University and NBER, and Basit Zafar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Financial Aid, Debt Management, and Socioeconomic Outcomes: Post-College Effects of Merit-Based Aid" (NBER Working Paper No. 22574)

    Hugh Macartney, Duke University and NBER; Robert McMillan, University of Toronto and NBER; and Uros Petronijevic, York University, "A Unifying Framework for Education Policy Analysis"

    Juan Saavedra, University of Southern California and NBER; Darío Maldonado, Universidad de los Andes (Bogotá); Lucrecia Santibañez, Claremont Graduate University; and Luis Omar Herrera Prada, Inter-American Development Bank, "Premium or Penalty? Labor Market Returns to Novice Public Sector Teachers"

    Michael D. Bates, University of California, Riverside, and Quentin O. Brummet, Bureau of the Census, "Parental Valuation of School Choice: Evidence from Geographic Boundaries"

    Lauren L. Schmitz, University of Michigan, and Dalton Conley, Princeton University and NBER, "The Effect of Vietnam-Era Conscription and Genetic Potential for Educational Attainment on Schooling Outcomes" (NBER Working Paper No. 22393)

    Thomas Ahn, University of Kentucky; Peter Arcidiacono, Duke University and NBER; and Amy Hopson and James R. Thomas, Duke University, "Equilibrium Grade Inflation with Implications for Female Interest in STEM Majors"

    Graham Beattie, University of Pittsburgh; Jean-William P. Laliberté, University of Toronto; and Philip Oreopoulos, University of Toronto and NBER, "Thrivers and Divers: Using Non-Academic Measures to Predict College Success and Failure" (NBER Working Paper No. 22629)

    Rob Garlick, Duke University, "The Effects of Nationwide Tuition Fee Elimination on Education Outcomes"

    Caroline Hoxby, "It's Not the Major, It's the Selectivity: Returns to College Majors"

    Ben M. Marx, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, and Lesley J. Turner, University of Maryland and NBER, "Student Loan Nudges: Experimental Evidence on Borrowing and Educational Attainment"

    Katherine Michelmore, Syracuse University, and Susan Dynarski, University of Michigan and NBER, "The Gap within the Gap: Using Longitudinal Data to Understand Income Differences in Student Achievement" (NBER Working Paper No. 22474)

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/EDf16/summary.html

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Labor Studies

The NBER's Program on Labor Studies met in Cambridge on November 11. Director David Card of the University of Cal-ifornia, Berkeley, organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Dylan Glover, Sciences Po (Paris); Amanda Pallais, Harvard University and NBER; and William Pariente, Université catholique de Louvain, "Discrimination as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Evidence from French Grocery Stores" (NBER Working Paper No. 22786)

    Peter Bergman, Columbia University, and Isaac McFarlin, Jr., University of Florida, "An Experimental Analysis of Cream Skimming in Charter Schools"

    Suzanne Barth and Kyung Park, Wellesley College, and Nikolas Mittag, CERGE-EI (Prague), "Voter Discrimination in Democratic Elections"

    Stefano DellaVigna, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, and David Card, "What Do Editors Maxim-ize? Evidence from Four Economics Journals"

    Zhuan Pei, Cornell University; Jörn-Steffen Pischke, London School of Economics and NBER; and Hannes Schwandt, University of Zurich, "Poorly Measured Confounders Are More Useful on the Left Than on the Right"

    Melvin Stephens, Jr., University of Michigan and NBER, and Desmond J. Toohey, University of Delaware, "The Impact of Health on Labor Market Outcomes: Experimental Evidence from MRFIT"

    Robert E. Hall, Stanford University and NBER, and Andreas I. Mueller, Columbia University and NBER, "Wage Dispersion and Search Behavior" (NBER Working Paper No. 21764)

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/LSf16/summary.html

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Organizational Economics

The NBER's Working Group on Organizational Economics met in Cambridge on November 18–19. Director Robert S. Gibbons of MIT organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Marina Halac, Columbia University, and Pierre Yared, Columbia University and NBER, "Commitment vs. Flexibility with Costly Verification"

    Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto and NBER, and Mara Lederman, University of Toronto, "Exit, Tweets, and Loyalty"

    Wouter Dessein, Columbia University, and Richard Holden, University of New South Wales (Sydney), "Organizations with Power-Hungry Agents"

    Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University and NBER; Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT and NBER; Lucia Foster and Ron S. Jarmin, Bureau of the Census; Megha Patnaik, Stanford University; Itay Saporta-Eksten, Tel Aviv University; and John Van Reenen, MIT and NBER, "What Drives Differences in Management?"

    Miguel Anton and Mireia Gine, University of Navarra; Florian Ederer, Yale University; and Martin C. Schmalz, University of Michigan, "Common Ownership, Competition, and Top Management Incentives"

    Heikki Rantakari, University of Rochester, "Relational Influence"

    Rocco Macchiavello, London School of Economics, and Josepa Miquel-Florensa, Toulouse School of Economics, "Vertical Integration and Relational Contracts in the Costa Rica Coffee Chain"

    Christopher Hansman and Matthieu Teachout, Columbia University; Jonas Hjort, Columbia University and NBER; and Gianmarco León, Pompeu Fabra University (Barcelona), "Vertical Integration, Supplier Behavior, and Quality Upgrading among Exporters"

    Enghin Atalay, University of Wisconsin–Madison; Mary Jialin Li, University of Chicago; and Ali Hortaçsu and Chad Syverson, University of Chicago and NBER, "How Wide Is the Firm Border?"

    Alan M. Benson, University of Minnesota; Danielle Li, Harvard University; and Kelly Shue, University of Chicago and NBER, "Can Promotion Tournaments Produce Bad Managers? Evidence of the 'Peter Principle' "

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/OEf16/summary.html

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Chinese Economy

The NBER's Working Group on the Chinese Economy met in Cambridge on November 18–19. Director Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia University and Research Associate Hanming Fang of the University of Pennsylvania organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Yongheng Deng, National University of Singapore; Shang-Jin Wei; and Jing Wu, Tsinghua University, "Estimating the Unofficial Income of Officials: The Case of China"

    Yu-Hsiang Lei, Yale-NUS College (Singapore), "Can Governments Harvest Connections with Firms? Evidence from China"

    Ruixue Jia, University of California, San Diego, and Hongbin Li, Tsinghua University, "Access to Elite Education, Wage Premium, and Social Mobility: The Truth and Illusion of China's College Entrance Exam"

    Lily Fang, INSEAD (Singapore); Josh Lerner, Harvard University and NBER; and Chaopeng Wu, Xiamen University, "Intellectual Property Rights Protection, Ownership, and Innovation: Evidence from China" (NBER Working Paper No. 22685)

    Jing Fang, Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Wuhan), and Hui He and Nan Li, International Monetary Fund, "China's Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-Level Evidence"

    Panle Jia Barwick, Cornell University and NBER; Shengmao Cao, Stanford University; and Shanjun Li, Cornell University, "Local Protectionism, Market Structure, and Social Welfare: China's Automobile Market"

    Sebastian Heise, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Justin Pierce, Federal Reserve Board; Georg Schaur, University of Tennessee; and Peter Schott, Yale University and NBER, "Trade Policy and the Structure of Supply Chains"

    Russell Cooper, Pennsylvania State University and NBER, and Guozhong Zhu, University of Alberta, "Household Finance in China"

    Markus Brunnermeier and Wei Xiong, Princeton University and NBER, and Michael Sockin, University of Texas at Austin, "China's Model of Managing the Financial System"

    Viral Acharya, New York University and NBER; Jun Qian, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance; and Zhishu Yang, Tsinghua University (Beijing), "In the Shadow of Banks: Wealth Management Products and Issuing Banks' Risk in China"

    Hao Wang and Hao Zhou, Tsinghua University (Beijing); Honglin Wang, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research; and Lisheng Wang, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "Shadow Banking: China's Dual-Track Interest Rate Liberalization"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/CEf16/summary.html

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Market Microstructure

The NBER's Working Group on Market Microstructure met in Cambridge on December 2. Tarun Chordia of Emory University; Amit Goyal of the University of Lausanne; Joel Hasbrouck of New York University; Research Associate Bruce Lehmann of University of California, San Diego; Gideon Saar of Cornell University; and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam of University of California, Los Angeles, organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Lin William Cong and Douglas Xun Xu, University of Chicago, "Rise of Factor Investing: Asset Prices, Informational Efficiency, and Security Design"

    Paolo Pasquariello, University of Michigan, "Agency Costs and Strategic Speculation in the U.S. Stock Market"

    Jennifer Conrad, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Sunil Wahal, Arizona State University, "The Term Structure of Liquidity Provision"

    Andriy Shkilko and Konstantin Sokolov, Wilfrid Laurier University (Ontario), "Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining: Fast Trading, Microwave Connectivity, and Trading Costs"

    Haoming Chen and Thomas Ruf, University of New South Wales (Sydney); Sean Foley, University of Sydney; and Michael Goldstein, Babson College, "The Value of a Millisecond: Harnessing Information in Fast, Fragmented Markets"

    Katya Malinova and Andreas Park, University of Toronto, "Market Design with Blockchain Technology"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/MMf16/summary.html

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International Trade and Investment

The NBER's Program on International Trade and Investment met in Palo Alto on December 2–3. Director Stephen Red-ding of Princeton University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Robert Feenstra, University of California, Davis, and NBER; Mingzhi Xu, University of California, Davis; and Alexis Antoniades, Georgetown University, "What is the Price of Tea in China? Towards the Relative Cost of Living in Chinese and U.S. Cities"

    Treb Allen, Dartmouth College and NBER; Costas Arkolakis, Yale University and NBER; and Xiangliang Li, Yale University, "On the Existence and Uniqueness of Trade Equilibria"

    Sharon Traiberman, Cowles Foundation, "Occupations and Import Competition: Evidence from Danish Matched Employee-Employer Data"

    Farid Farrokhi, Purdue University, "Global Sourcing in Oil Markets"

    Anna Gumpert, University of Munich; Andreas Moxnes, University of Oslo and NBER; Natalia Ramondo, University of California, San Diego, and NBER; and Felix Tintelnot, University of Chicago and NBER, "Exporters' and Multinational Firms' Life-Cycle Dynamics"

    Andrew Bernard, Dartmouth College and NBER, and Swati Dhingra, London School of Economics, "Importers, Exporters, and the Division of the Gains from Trade"

    Mary Amiti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Mi Dai, Beijing Normal University; Robert Feenstra, University of California, Davis, and NBER; and John Romalis, University of Sydney and NBER, "How Did China's WTO Entry Benefit U.S. Consumers?"

    Justin Pierce, Federal Reserve Board, and Peter Schott, Yale University and NBER, "Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties" (NBER Working Paper No. 22849)

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/ITIf16/summary.html

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Entrepreneurship

The NBER's Working Group on Entrepreneurship, supported by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, met in Cambridge on December 9. Director Antoinette Schoar of MIT and Research Associate Josh Lerner of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Zhao Chen, Fudan University (Shanghai); Zhikuo Liu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Daniel Xu, Duke University and NBER, "Notching R&D Investment with Corporate Income Tax Cuts in China"

    Juanita Gonzalez-Uribe and Daniel Paravisini, London School of Economics, "How Sensitive Is Investment to the Cost of Outside Equity? Evidence from a U.K. Tax Relief"

    Morten Bennedsen, INSEAD (Fontainebleau); Margarita Tsoutsoura, University of Chicago; and Daniel Wolfenzon, Columbia University and NBER, "Drivers of Effort: Evidence from Employee Absenteeism"

    Sabrina T. Howell, New York University, "Learning and Success in Entrepreneurship"

    William Mullins, University of Maryland, and Patricio Toro, Central Bank of Chile, "Credit Guarantees and Credit Constraints"

    Daniel Cavagnaro and Yingdi Wang, California State University, Fullerton; Berk Sensoy, Ohio State University; and Michael Weisbach, Ohio State University and NBER, "Measuring Institutional Investors' Skill from Their Investments in Private Equity" (NBER Working Paper No. 22547)

    Aleksander Andonov, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Yael Hochberg, Rice University and NBER; and Joshua Rauh, Stanford University and NBER, "Political Representation and Governance: Evidence from the Investment Decisions of Public Pension Funds"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/ENTf16/summary.html

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Development

The NBER's Program on Development Economics met in Cambridge on December 9–10. Research Associates Esther Duflo of MIT, Richard Hornbeck of the University of Chicago, Rohini Pande of Harvard University, Duncan Thomas of Duke University, and Eric Verhoogen of Columbia University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Adnan Khan, London School of Economics; Asim Ijaz Khwaja, Harvard University and NBER; and Benjamin A. Olken, MIT and NBER, "Making Moves Matter: Experimental Evidence on Incentivizing Bureaucrats through Performance-Based Transfers"

    Michael C. Best, Stanford University; Jonas Hjort, Columbia University and NBER; and David Szakonyi, George Washington University, "Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness, and Consequences for Policy Design"

    Tommaso Porzio, University of California, San Diego, "Cross-Country Differences in the Optimal Allocation of Talent and Technology"

    Emily Breza, Harvard University and NBER, and Cynthia Kinnan, Northwestern University and NBER, "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis"

    Seema Jayachandran, Northwestern University and NBER; Joost de Laat, Porticus; Eric Lambin, Stanford University; and Charlotte Stanton, Carnegie Institution for Science, "Cash for Carbon: A Randomized Controlled Trial of Payments for Ecosystem Services to Reduce Deforestation" (NBER Working Paper No. 22378)

    Zhao Chen, Fudan University (Shanghai); Zhikuo Liu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Daniel Xu, Duke University and NBER, "Notching R&D Investment with Corporate Income Tax Cuts in China"

    Lorenzo Casaburi, University of Zurich, and Tristan Reed, McKinsey and Company, "Competition and Interlinkages in Agricultural Markets: An Experimental Approach"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/DEVf16/summary.html

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