NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The NBER Reporter 2015 Number 1: Program and Working Group Meetings


Labor Studies
Law and Economics
Insurance
Industrial Organization
Economic Fluctuations and Growth

EFJK Growth
Monetary Economics
Health Care
Development of the American Economy

Labor Studies

The NBER's Program on Labor Studies, directed by David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, met in San Francisco on February 20. These papers were discussed:

    Hamish Low, University of Cambridge; Costa Meghir, Yale University and NBER; Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University and NBER; and Alessandra Voena, University of Chicago and NBER, "Marriage, Social Insurance, and Labor Supply"

    Jesse Rothstein, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, "Revisiting the Impacts of Teachers"

    Ioana Marinescu, University of Chicago, and Roland Rathelot, University of Warwick, "Mismatch Unemployment and the Geography of Job Search"

    Lance Lochner, University of Western Ontario and NBER, and Youngki Shin, University of Western Ontario, "Understanding Earnings Dynamics: Identifying and Estimating the Changing Roles of Unobserved Ability, Permanent, and Transitory Shocks" (NBER Working Paper No. 20068)

    Will Dobbie, Princeton University and NBER, and Jae Song, Social Security Administration, "The Impact of Loan Modifications on Repayment, Bankruptcy, and Labor Supply: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment"

    Alvaro Mezza, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Moshe Buchinsky, University of California, Los Angeles, and NBER, "Illegal Drugs, Education, and Labor Market Outcomes"

    Henry Farber, Princeton University and NBER, "Why You Can't Find a Taxi in the Rain and Other Labor Supply Lessons from Cab Drivers" (NBER Working Paper No. 20604)

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/LSs15/summary.html

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Law and Economics

The NBER's Law and Economics Program, directed by Christine Jolls of Yale University, met in Cambridge on February 20. These papers were discussed:

    Megan Lawrence, Harvard University; Felix Oberholzer-Gee, Harvard University and NBER; and Victor Calanog, Reis, Inc, "Bidding for Business: Tax Discrimination as Local Industrial Policy"

    Bradley Larsen, Stanford University and NBER, "Occupational Licensing and Quality: Distributional and Heterogeneous Effects in the Teaching Profession"

    Lauren Cohen, Harvard University and NBER; Umit Gurun, University of Texas at Dallas; and Scott Duke Kominers, Harvard University, "Patent Trolls: Evidence from Targeted Firms" (NBER Working Paper No. 20322)

    Kathryn Spier, Harvard University and NBER, and J.J. Prescott, University of Michigan, "Tailored Suits: Contracting on Litigation"

    Andrew Daughety and Jennifer Reinganum, Vanderbilt University, "Informal Sanctions on Prosecutors and Defendants and the Disposition of Criminal Cases"

    Adair Morse, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, and Wei Wang and Serena Wu, Queen's University, "Executive Gatekeepers: The Paradox of Lawyers in the Firm"

    Benjamin Keys, University of Chicago, and Jialin Wang, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, "Minimum Payments and Debt Paydown in Consumer Credit Cards"

    Charles Calomiris, Columbia University and NBER; Mauricio Larrain, Columbia University; and José Liberti and Jason Sturgess, DePaul University, "How Collateral Laws Shape Lending and Sectoral Activity"

    Will Dobbie, Princeton University and NBER, and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham and Crystal Yang, Harvard University, "Consumer Bankruptcy and Financial Health"

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/LEs15/summary.html

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Insurance

The NBER's Insurance Working Group, directed by Liran Einav of Stanford University and Kenneth Froot of Harvard University, met in Palo Alto on February 19 and 20. Part of the meeting was held jointly with the Industrial Organization Program. In addition to the papers marked with an (*) in the Industrial Organization summary, these papers were discussed:

    Tatyana Deryugina and Barrett Kirwan, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, "Does the Samaritan's Dilemma Matter? Evidence from U.S. Agriculture"

    Zarek Brot-Goldberg, University of California, Berkeley; Amitabh Chandra, Harvard University and NBER; Benjamin Handel, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; and Jonathan Kolstad, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Consumer Heterogeneity and Medical Care Price Responsiveness: Evidence and Implications for Optimal Insurance Design"

    Daniel Bauer and George Zanjani, Georgia State University, "The Marginal Cost of Risk and Capital Allocation in a Multi-Period Model"

    Amanda Kowalski, Yale University and NBER, "What Do Longitudinal Data on Millions of Hospital Visits Tell Us about the Value of Public Health Insurance as a Safety Net for the Young and Privately Insured?"

    Eduardo Azevedo and Daniel Gottlieb, University of Pennsylvania, "Perfect Competition in Markets with Adverse Selection"

    Marika Cabral and Michael Geruso, University of Texas at Austin and NBER, and Neale Mahoney, University of Chicago and NBER, "Does Privatized Health Insurance Benefit Patients or Producers? Evidence from Medicare Advantage" (NBER Working Paper No. 20470)

    Saurabh Bhargava and George Loewenstein, Carnegie Mellon University, and Justin Sydnor, University of Wisconsin, "Choose to Lose? Employee Health-Plan Decisions from a Menu with Dominated Options"

    Johannes Jaspersen, Andreas Richter, and Sebastian Soika, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, "On the Demand Effects of Rate Regulation - Evidence from a Natural Experiment"

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/INSs15/summary.html

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Industrial Organization

The NBER's Program on Industrial Organization, directed by Jonathan Levin of Stanford University, met in Palo Alto on February 20 and 21. NBER Research Associates Michael Dickstein of Stanford University and Ali Hortaçsu of the University of Chicago organized the meeting. Part of the meeting was held jointly with the NBER's Insurance Program, and papers marked with an (*) were presented to the joint session. These papers were discussed:

    *Francesco Decarolis, Boston University; Maria Polyakova, Stanford University; and Stephen Ryan, University of Texas at Austin and NBER, "The Welfare Effects of Supply-Side Regulations in Medicare Part D"

    *Neale Mahoney, University of Chicago and NBER, and E. Glen Weyl, Microsoft Corporation, "Imperfect Competition in Selection Markets" (NBER Working Paper No. 20411)

    *Elisabeth Honka, University of Texas at Dallas, and Pradeep Chintagunta, University of Chicago, "Simultaneous or Sequential? Search Strategies in the U.S. Auto Insurance Industry"

    Gregory Crawford and Nicola Pavanini, University of Zurich, and Fabiano Schivardi, LUISS Guido Carli, "Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition in Lending Markets"

    Michael Sinkinson, University of Pennsylvania, and Amanda Starc, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Ask Your Doctor? Direct-to-Consumer Advertising of Pharmaceuticals"

    Anna Tuchman, Harikesh Nair, and Pedro Gardete, Stanford University, "Complementarities in Consumption and the Consumer Demand for Advertising"

    Nikhil Agarwal and Paulo Somaini, MIT and NBER, "Demand Analysis Using Strategic Reports: An Application to a School Choice Mechanism" (NBER Working Paper No. 20775)

    Christina Dalton, Wake Forest University; Gautam Gowrisankaran, University of Arizona and NBER; and Robert Town, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Myopia and Complex Dynamic Incentives: Evidence from Medicare Part D"

    Gregory Crawford, University of Zurich; Robin Lee, Harvard University and NBER; Michael Whinston, MIT and NBER; and Ali Yurukoglu, Stanford University and NBER, "The Welfare Effects of Vertical Integration in Multichannel Television Markets"

    Jean-Pierre Dubé, University of Chicago and NBER; Xueming Luo, Temple University; and Zheng Fang, Sichuan University, "Self-Signaling and Prosocial Behavior: A Cause Marketing Mobile Field Experiment"

    Daniel Björkegren, Brown University, "The Adoption of Network Goods: Evidence from the Spread of Mobile Phones in Rwanda"

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/IOs15/summary.html

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Economic Fluctuations and Growth

The NBER's Program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth, directed by Mark Gertler of New York University and Peter Klenow of Stanford University, met in San Francisco on February 27. NBER Research Associates Manuel Amador of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Andrea Eisfeldt of the University of California, Los Angeles, organized the meeting. These papers were discussed:

    Pablo Kurlat, Stanford University and NBER, "Asset Markets with Heterogeneous Information"

    Johannes Stroebel, New York University, and Joseph Vavra, University of Chicago and NBER, "House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices" (NBER Working Paper No. 20710)

    Daniel Greenwald, New York University; Martin Lettau, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; and Sydney Ludvigson, New York University and NBER, "Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations" (NBER Working Paper No. 19818)

    Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota and NBER; Fatih Karahan, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Serdar Ozkan, University of Toronto; and Jae Song, Social Security Administration, "“What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Lifecycle Earnings Risk?"

    Philippe Martin, Sciences Po, and Thomas Philippon, New York University and NBER, "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone" (NBER Working Paper No. 20572)

    Rabah Arezki, International Monetary Fund; Valerie Ramey, University of California, San Diego, and NBER; and Liugang Sheng, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries" (NBER Working Paper No. 20857)

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/EFGw15/summary.html

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EFJK Growth

The NBER's EFJK Growth Group, organized by Ufuk Akcigit of the University of Pennsylvania and Benjamin Moll of Princeton University, met in San Francisco on February 26. These papers were discussed:

    Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman, University of Chicago and NBER, "Capital Depreciation and Labor Shares around the World: Measurement and Implications" (NBER Working Paper No. 20606)

    Vasco Carvalho, University of Cambridge, and Nico Voigtländer, University of California, Los Angeles, and NBER, "Input Diffusion and the Evolution of Production Networks"

    Andrew Atkeson and Ariel Burstein, University of California, Los Angeles, and NBER, "Aggregate Implications of Innovation Policy" (NBER Working Paper No. 17493)

    Sînâ Ateş, University of Pennsylvania, and Felipe Saffie, University of Maryland, "Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection"

    Diego Comin, Dartmouth College and NBER; Danial Lashkari, Harvard University; and Martí Mestieri, Toulouse School of Economics, "Structural Change with Long-Run Income and Price Effects"

    Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Grown-up Business Cycles"

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/EGCw15/summary.html

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Monetary Economics

The NBER's Monetary Economics Program, directed by Christina Romer and David Romer of the University of California, Berkeley, met in Chicago on March 6. NBER Research Associates Janice Eberly of Northwestern University and Arvind Krishnamurthy of Stanford University organized the program. These papers were discussed:

    Erik Hurst, Amit Seru, and Joseph Vavra, University of Chicago and NBER, and Benjamin Keys, University of Chicago, "Regional Redistribution through the U.S. Mortgage Market"

    Efraim Benmelech, Northwestern University and NBER, and Ralf Meisenzahl and Rodney Ramcharan, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "The Real Effects of Liquidity During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Automobiles"

    Òscar Jordà, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn; and Alan Taylor, University of California, Davis, and NBER, "Betting the House" (NBER Working Paper No. 20771)

    Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Christopher Sims, Princeton University and NBER, "When Does a Central Bank's Balance Sheet Require Fiscal Support?"

    Stefano Giglio, University of Chicago and NBER; Matteo Maggiori, Harvard University and NBER; and Johannes Stroebel, New York University, "No-Bubble Condition: Model-Free Tests in Housing Markets" (NBER Working Paper No. 20154)

    Stefan Nagel, University of Michigan and NBER, "The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets" (NBER Working Paper No. 20265)

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/MEs15/summary.html

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Health Care

The NBER's Health Care Program, directed by Jonathan Gruber of MIT, met in Cambridge on March 6. These papers were discussed:

    Emily Oster, Brown University and NBER, "Diabetes and Diet: Behavior Change and the Value of Health"

    Maria Polyakova, Stanford University, "Regulation of Insurance with Adverse Selection and Switching Costs: Evi-dence from Medicare Part D"

    Matthew Grennan, University of Pennsylvania, and Ashley Swanson, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Transparency and Negotiated Prices: The Value of Benchmarking in Hospital-Supplier Bargaining"

    Zack Cooper and Stuart Craig, Yale University; Martin Gaynor, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER; and John Van Reenen, London School of Economics and NBER, "Why is Health Care Spending on the Privately Insured in Grand Junction, Colorado, So High? Prices, Competition, and Health Care Spending"

    David Powell, RAND Corporation, and Seth Seabury, University of Southern California, "Medical Care Spending and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Workers' Compensation Reforms"

    Benjamin Handel, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; Jonathan Kolstad, University of Pennsylvania and NBER; Amitabh Chandra, Harvard University and NBER; and Zarek Brot-Goldberg, University of California, Berkeley, "What Does a Deductible Do? The Impact of Cost-Sharing on Health Care Prices, Quantities, and Spending Dynamics"

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/HCs15/summary.html

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Development of the American Economy

The NBER's Program on the Development of the American Economy, directed by Claudia Goldin of Harvard University, met in Cambridge on March 7. These papers were discussed:

    Karen Clay, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER; Joshua Lewis, Université de Montréal; and Edson Severnini, Carnegie Mellon University, "Benefits and Costs of Electricity Pre-Clean Air Act"

    B. Zorina Khan, Bowdoin College and NBER, "Invisible Women: Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Family Firms in France during Early Industrialization" (NBER Working Paper No. 20854)

    Daniel Fetter, Wellesley College and NBER, and Lee Lockwood, Northwestern University and NBER, "Means-Tested Old Age Support and Private Behavior: Evidence from the Old Age Assistance Program"

    Andrew Goodman-Bacon, University of California, Berkeley, "Public Insurance and Mortality: Evidence from Medicaid Implementation"

    Felipe Gonzalez, University of California, Berkeley; Guillermo Marshall, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; and Suresh Naidu, Columbia University and NBER, "Start-up Nation? Slave Wealth and Entrepreneurship in Civil War Maryland"

    Emily Nix, Yale University, and Nancy Qian, Yale University and NBER, "The Fluidity of Race: 'Passing' in the United States, 1880-1940" (NBER Working Paper No. 20828)

    Michael Huberman, Université de Montréal; Christopher Meissner, University of California, Davis, and NBER; and Kim Oosterlinck, Université Libre de Bruxelles, "Technology and Geography in the Second Industrial Revolution: New Evidence from the Margins of Trade" (NBER Working Paper No. 20851)

Summaries of these papers may be found at http://www.nber.org/confer/2015/DAEs15/summary.html

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