NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The NBER Reporter 2013 Number 4: Program and Working Group Meetings


Development Economics
Industrial Organization
Environmental and Energy Economics
Law and Economics
Economic Fluctuations and Growth
Labor Studies
Healthcare

Insurance
Development of the American Economy
Monetary Economics
Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship
International Trade and Investment
International Finance and Macroeconomics

Development Economics

The NBER's Program on Development Economics, directed by Duncan Thomas of Duke University, met in Cambridge on October 11 and 12, 2013. NBER researchers Pascaline Dupas of Stanford University, Frederico Finan of the University of California, Berkeley, and Sebastian Galiani of the University of Maryland organized the meeting. The meeting was held jointly with the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development. These papers were discussed:

    Mark Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry, Yale University and NBER, "Forecasting Profitability" (NBER Working Paper No. 19334)

    Anandi Mani, University of Warwick; Sendhil Mullainathan, Harvard University and NBER; Eldar Shafir, Princeton University; and Jiaying Zhao, University of British Columbia, "Poverty Impedes Cognitive Function"

    Karthik Muralidharan, University of California, San Diego and NBER, and Venkatesh Sundararaman, World Bank, "The Aggregate Effects of School Choice: Evidence from a Two-Stage Experiment in India" (NBER Working Paper No. 19441)

    Pedro Carneiro and Hugo Reis, University College London, and Jishnu Das, World Bank, "Parental Valuation of School Attributes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Pakistan"

    Arthur Blouin and Rocco Macchiavello, University of Warwick, "Tropical Lending: International Prices, Strategic Default and Credit Constraints among Coffee Washing Stations"

    Christopher Blattman, Columbia University; Nathan Fiala, German Institute for Economic Research; and Sebastian Martinez, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, "Generating Skilled Self-Employment in Developing Countries: Experimental Evidence from Uganda"

    Imran Rasul and Daniel Rogger, University College London, "Management of Bureaucrats and Public Services Delivery: Evidence from the Nigerian Civil Service"

    Daron Acemoglu, MIT and NBER; Camilo García-Jimeno, University of Pennsylvania; and James Robinson, Harvard University and NBER, "State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach" (NBER Working Paper No. 19813)

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2013/BREAD13/summary.html.

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Industrial Organization

The NBER's Program on Industrial Organization, directed by Nancy Rose of MIT, met in Palo Alto on January 24 and 25, 2014. NBER researchers Severin Borenstein and Benjamin Handel, both of the University of California, Berkeley, organized the meeting. Part of the meeting was held jointly with the NBER's Environmental and Energy Economics Program, and papers marked with a (*) were presented to the joint session. These papers were discussed:

    Randall Lewis, Google, Inc., and Justin Rao, Microsoft Research, "On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising"

    Nicola Lacetera, University of Toronto and NBER; Bradley Larsen, Stanford University; Devin Pope, University of Chicago and NBER; and Justin Sydnor, University of Wisconsin, "Bid Takers or Market Makers? The Effect of Auctioneers on Auction Outcomes" (NBER Working Paper No. 19731)

    Eric Anderson, Northwestern University; Emi Nakamura, Columbia University and NBER; Duncan Simester, MIT; and Jón Steinsson, Columbia University and NBER, "Informational Rigidities and the Stickiness of Temporary Sales" (NBER Working Paper No. 19350)

    (*)Soren Anderson, Michigan State University and NBER; Ryan Kellogg, University of Michigan and NBER; and Stephen Salant, University of Michigan, "Hotelling Under Pressure"

    (*)Louis Kaplow, Harvard University and NBER, "Optimal Regulation with Exemptions and Corrective Taxes"

    Aviv Nevo, Northwestern University and NBER, and John Turner and Jonathan Williams, University of Georgia, "Usage-Based Pricing and Demand for Residential Broadband"

    Brian Chen, University of South Carolina, and Paul Gertler, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, "Moral Hazard and Economies of Scope in Physician Ownership of Complementary Medical Services" (NBER Working Paper No. 19622)

    Ricardo Cossa, Charles River Associates, and Mariano Tappata, University of British Columbia, "Price Discrimination 2.0: Opaque Bookings in the Hotel Industry"

    Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore; Souphala Chomsisengphet, Department of the Treasury ; Neale Mahoney, University of Chicago and NBER; and Johannes Stroebel, New York University, "Regulating Consumer Financial Products: Evidence from Credit Cards" (NBER Working Paper No. 19484)

    Ulrich Doraszelski, University of Pennsylvania, and Gregory Lewis and Ariel Pakes, Harvard University and NBER, "Just Starting Out: Learning and Price Competition in a New Market"

    (*)Hunt Allcott and Allan Collard-Wexler, New York University and NBER, and Stephen O'Connell, City University of New York, "How Do Electricity Shortages Affect Productivity? Evidence from India"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/IOs14/summary.html.

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Economic Fluctuations and Growth

The NBER's Program on Environmental and Energy Economics, directed by Don Fullerton of the University of Illinois, met in Palo Altoon January 23 and 24, 2014. NBER Research Associates Chris Costello of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Catherine Wolfram of the University of California, Berkeley, organized the meeting. Part of the meeting was held jointly with the Industrial Organization Program. In addition to the papers marked with a (*) in the foregoing summary of the Industrial Organization meeting, these papers were discussed:

    Solomon Hsiang, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, and Amir Jina, Columbia University, "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth"

    Joseph Shapiro, Yale University and NBER, "Trade, CO2, and the Environment"

    Severin Borenstein, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; James Bushnell, University of California, Davis and NBER; Frank Wolak, Stanford University and NBER; and Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins, University of California, Berkeley, "Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design"

    Koichiro Ito, Boston University and NBER, and James Sallee, University of Chicago and NBER, "The Economics of Attribute-Based Regulation: Theory and Evidence from Fuel-Economy Standards"

    Christopher Costello and Corbett Grainger, University of Wisconsin, Madison, "Property Rights, Regulatory Capture, and Exploitation of Natural Resources"

    Samuel Bell, Cornell University; Kelsey Jack, Tufts University and NBER; Paulina Oliva, University of California, Santa Barbara and NBER; Christopher Severen, University of California, Santa Barbara; and Elizabeth Walker, Harvard University, "Uncertainty, Self-Selection and the Design of Subsidies: Evidence from Zambia"

    Michael Greenstone, MIT and NBER; Stephen Ryan, University of Texas, Austin and NBER; and Michael Yankovich, U.S. Military Academy at West Point, "The Value of a Statistical Life: Evidence from Military Retention Incentives and Occupation-Specific Mortality"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/EEEs14/summary.html.

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Law and Economics

The NBER's Law and Economics Program, directed by Christine Jolls of Yale Law School, met in Cambridge on February 7, 2014. These papers were discussed:

    Alain Cohn and Michel Maréchal, University of Zurich, and Thomas Noll, Swiss Prison Staff Training Center, "Bad Boys: How Criminal Identity Affects Rule Violation"

    Jared Stanfield and Robert Tumarkin, University of New South Wales, "The Effect of the Political Power of Unions on Firm Value"

    Decio Coviello, HEC Montréal, and Nicola Persico, Northwestern University and NBER, "An Economic Analysis of Black-White Disparities in NYPD's Stop and Frisk Program" (NBER Working Paper No. 18803)

    Mariassunta Giannetti, Stockholm School of Economics, and Tracy Yue Wang, University of Minnesota, "Corporate Scandals and Household Stock Market Participation"

    Rohan Pitchford, Australian National University, and Christopher Snyder, Dartmouth College and NBER, "Mortgage Origination and the Rise of Securitization: An Incomplete-Contracts Model"

    Edward Morrison, University of Chicago; Arpit Gupta, Columbia Business School; and Lenora Olson, Lawrence Cook and Heather Keenan, University of Utah, "Health and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Car Crashes and Consumer Bankruptcy"

    Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore; Souphala Chomsisengphet, Department of the Treasury; Neale Mahoney, University of Chicago and NBER; and Johannes Stroebel, New York University, "Regulating Consumer Financial Products: Evidence from Credit Cards" (NBER Working Paper No. 19484)

    Vyacheslav Fos, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, and Wei Jiang, Columbia University, "Out-of-the-Money CEOs: Private Control Premium and Option Exercise by CEOs"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/LEs14/summary.html.

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Economic Fluctuations and Growth

The NBER'S Program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth, directed by Mark Gertler of New York University and Peter Klenow of Stanford University, met in New York City on February 7, 2014. NBER Research Associates Robert Shimer of the University of Chicago, and Michael Woodford of Columbia University, organized the meeting. These papers were discussed:

    Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Harvard University, and Loukas Karabarbounis, University of Chicago and NBER, "The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment" (NBER Working Paper No. 19678)

    Roger Farmer, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, and Carine Nourry and Alain Venditti, University of the Mediterranean, "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World" (NBER Working Paper No. 18647)

    Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago and NBER; Hervé Le Bihan, Banque de France; and Francesco Lippi, EIEF, "Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks"

    Charles Carlstrom, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Timothy Fuerst, University of Notre Dame; and Matthias Paustian, Federal Reserve Board, "Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets"

    Anna Orlik, Federal Reserve Board, and Laura Veldkamp, New York University and NBER, "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans"

    William Dupor, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Rong Li, The Ohio State University, "“The 2009 Recovery Act and the Expected Inflation Channel of Government Spending"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/EFGw14/summary.html.

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Labor Studies

The NBER's Program on Labor Studies, directed by David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, met in San Francisco on February 21, 2014. These papers were discussed:

    Michael Elsby, University of Edinburgh; Donggyun Shin, Kyung Hee University; and Gary Solon, Michigan State University and NBER, "Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession" (NBER Working Paper No. 19478)

    Henry Farber, Princeton University and NBER, "Union Organizing Decisions in a Deteriorating Environment: The Composition of Representation Elections and the Decline in Turnout"

    Peter Arcidiacono,V. Joseph Hotz, and Arnaud Maurel, Duke University and NBER; and Teresa Romano, Duke University, "Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations Using Subjective Expectations Data"

    Ashwini Agrawal and Prasanna Tambe, New York University, "“Private Equity, Technological Investment, and Labor Outcomes"

    Luigi Pistaferri and Giacomo De Giorgi, Stanford University and NBER, Anders Frederiksen, Aarhus University, "Consumption Network Effects"

    Stephen Burks, University of Minnesota; Bo Cowgill, University of California, Berkeley; Mitchell Hoffman, University of Toronto; and Michael Housman, Evolv, Inc., "The Facts about Referrals: Toward on Understanding of Employee Referral Networks"

    Robert Valletta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, "Recent Extensions of U.S. Unemployment Benefits: Search Responses under Varying Labor Market States"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/LSs14/summary.html.

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Healthcare

The NBER's Healthcare Program, which is directed by Jonathan Gruber of MIT, met in Cambridge on February 28, 2014. Part of the meeting was held jointly with the NBER's Insurance Working Group, and papers marked with a (*) were presented to the joint session. These papers were discussed:

    Jill Horwitz, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, and Daniel Polsky, University of Pennsylvania, "Challenges to Regulatory Decentralization: Lessons from State Health Technology Regulation" (NBER Working Paper No. 19801)

    Jeffrey Clemens, University of California, San Diego and NBER, and Joshua Gottlieb, University of British Columbia, "Bargaining in the Shadow of a Giant: Medicare's Influence on Private Payment Systems" (NBER Working Paper No. 19503)

    (*) Marika Cabral, University of Texas, Austin and NBER, and Neale Mahoney, University of Chicago, "Externalities and Taxation of Supplemental Insurance: A Study of Medicare and Medigap" (NBER Working Paper No. 19787)

    (*) Liran Einav, Stanford University and NBER; Amy Finkelstein, MIT and NBER; Ray Kluender, MIT; and Paul Schrimpf, University of British Columbia, "Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores"

    (*) Darius Lakdawalla, University of Southern California and NBER; Anup Malani, University of Chicago and NBER; and Julian Reif, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, "“The Insurance Value of Medical Innovation"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/INSs14/summaryHC.html.

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Insurance

The NBER's Insurance Working Group, directed by Liran Einav of Stanford University and Kenneth Froot of Harvard University, met in Cambridge on February 28 and March 1, 2014. Part of the meeting was held jointly with the Healthcare Program meeting. In addition to the papers marked with a (*) in the foregoing summary of the Healthcare meeting, these papers were discussed:

    (*) Florian Scheuer, Stanford University and NBER, and Kent Smetters, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Could a Website Really Have Doomed the Health Exchanges? Multiple Equilibria, Initial Conditions and the Construction of the Fine" (NBER Working Paper No. 19835)

    (*) Gaston Palmucci, University of Wisconsin, Madison, and Laura Dague, Texas A&M University, "The Welfare Effects of Banning Risk-Rated Pricing in Health Insurance Markets: Evidence from Chile"

    Ralph Koijen, London Business School, and Motohiro Yogo, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "Shadow Insurance" (NBER Working Paper No. 19568)

    John Kiff, International Monetary Fund, and Michael Kisser, Norwegian School of Economics, "Longevity Risk Transfer Markets: Market Structure, Growth Drivers and Impediments, and Potential Risks"

    Daniel Bauer, Georgia State University; Jochen Russ, Institute for Financial and Actuarial Science and Ulm University; and Nan Zhu, Illinois State University, "Adverse Selection in Secondary Insurance Markets: Evidence from the Life Settlement Market"

    Thomas Davidoff and Jake Wetzel, University of British Columbia, "Do Reverse Mortgage Borrowers Use Credit Ruthlessly"?

    Justin Gallagher, Case Western University, and Daniel Hartley, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, "Underwater? Household Finance and Migration Decisions after a Flood: The Case of Hurricane Katrina"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/INSs14/summary.html

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Development of the American Economy

The NBER's Program on Development of the American Economy, directed by Claudia Goldin of Harvard University, met in Cambridge on March 1, 2014. The following papers were discussed:

    Robert Margo, Boston University and NBER, "Economies of Scale in Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing Revisited: A Solution to the Entrepreneurial Labor Input Problem" (NBER Working Paper No. 19147)

    Peter Lindert, University of California, Davis and NBER, and Jeffrey Williamson, University of Wisconsin, Madison and NBER, "American Incomes 1650-1870: New Evidence, Controlled Conjectures"

    Joshua Rosenbloom, University of Kansas and NBER, "Forging a Research Mission for the University of Kansas"

    Carl Kitchens, University of Mississippi and NBER, and Price Fishback, University of Arizona and NBER, "Flip the Switch: The Spatial Impact of the Rural Electrification Administration 1935-1940" (NBER Working Paper No. 19743)

    Douglass North, Washington University in St. Louis, and John Wallis, University of Maryland and NBER, "Leviathan Denied: Governments, Rules, and Social Dynamics"

    Leander Heldring, University of Oxford; James Robinson, Harvard University and NBER; and Sebastian Vollmer, University of Göttingen, "Monks, Gents and Industrialists: The Long Run Impact of the Dissolution of the Monasteries"

    Erik Loualiche, MIT, and Nicolas Ziebarth, University of Iowa and NBER, "Internal Capital Markets in the Great Depression"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/DAEs14/summary.html.

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Monetary Economics

The NBER's Monetary Economics Program, directed by Christina Romer and David Romer of the University of California, Berkeley, met in New York City on March 7, 2014. NBER researchers John Leahy and Virgiliu Midrigan of New York University organized the program. These papers were discussed:

    Xavier Gabaix and Matteo Maggiori, New York University and NBER, "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics"

    Roc Armenter, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, "The Perils of Nominal Targets"

    Francesco Bianchi, Duke University, and Cosmin Ilut, Duke University and NBER, "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs"

    Christina Romer and David Romer, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, "Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991"

    Saroj Bhattarai and Bulat Gafarov, Pennsylvania State University, and Gauti Eggertsson, Brown University and NBER, "Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing"

    Philippe Martin, Sciences Po, and Thomas Philippon, New York University and NBER, "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/MEs14/summary.html.

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Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship

The NBER Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Program, co-directed by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and Josh Lerner of Harvard University, met in Cambridge on March 21, 2014. The following papers were discussed:

    Pian Shu, Harvard University, "Are the 'Best and Brightest' Going into Finance? Career Choice and Skill Development of MIT Graduates"

    Walker Hanlon, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, and Antonio Miscio, Columbia University, "Agglomeration: A Dynamic Approach"

    Pierre Azoulay, MIT and NBER; Joshua Graff Zivin, University of California, San Diego and NBER; Danielle Li, Northwestern University; and Bhaven Sampat, Columbia University and NBER, "Public R&D Investments and Private Sector Patenting: Evidence from NIH Funding Rules"

    Ajay Agrawal, University of Toronto and NBER; Carlos Rosell, Department of Finance, Canada; and Timothy Simcoe, Boston University and NBER, "How Do Tax Credits Affect R&D Expenditures by Small Firms? Evidence from Canada"

    Manuel Adelino and Song Ma, Duke University, and David Robinson, Duke University and NBER, "Firm Age, Investment Opportunities, and Job Creation" (NBER Working Paper No. 19485)

    Shai Bernstein, Stanford University, and Albert Sheen, Harvard University, "The Operational Consequences of Private Equity Buyouts: Evidence from the Restaurant Industry"

    Achyuta Adhvaryu, University of Michigan; Namrata Kala, Yale University; and Anant Nyshadham, University of Southern California, "The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-Benefits of Energy-Saving Technology"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/PRs14/summary.html.

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International Trade and Investment

The NBER'S Program on International Trade and Investment, directed by Robert Feenstra of the University of California, Davis, met in Washington, D.C., on March 28 and 29, 2014. NBER researchers David Richardson of Syracuse University, and Matthew Slaughter of Dartmouth College organized the meeting. These papers were discussed:

    Brian Cadena, University of Colorado, Boulder, and Brian Kovak, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER, "Immigrants Equilibrate Local Labor Markets: Evidence from the Great Recession" (NBER Working Paper No. 19272)

    José Fillat, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston; Stefania Garetto, Boston University; and Lindsay Oldenski, Georgetown University, "Diversification, Cost Structure, and the Risk Premium of Multinational Corporations"

    Anca Cristea, University of Oregon; David Hummels, Purdue University and NBER; and Brian Roberson, Purdue University, "Estimating the Gains from Liberalizing Services Trade: The Case of Passenger Aviation"

    Jennifer Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz, "Business Travel as an Input to International Trade"

    Alan Spearot, University of California, Santa Cruz, "Tariffs, Competition, and the Long of Firm Heterogeneity Models"

    Emily Blanchard, Dartmouth College, and Gerald Willmann, Bielefeld University, "Unequal Gains, Prolonged Pain: Dynamic Adjustment Costs and Protectionist Overshooting"

    Katheryn Russ, University of California, Davis and NBER, and Balazs Murakozy, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, "Competition with Multinational Firms: Theory and Evidence"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/ITIs14/summary.html.

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International Finance and Macroeconomics

The NBER'S Program on International Finance and Macroeconomics met in Cambridge on March 28, 2014. Research Associates Gita Gopinath of Harvard University and Hélène Rey of London Business School organized the meeting. These papers were discussed:

    Xavier Gabaix and Matteo Maggiori, New York University and NBER, "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics" (NBER Working Paper No. 19854)

    Ralph Koijen, London Business School; Tobias Moskowitz, University of Chicago and NBER; Lasse Pedersen, Copenhagen Business School, New York University and NBER; and Evert Vrugt, VU University Amsterdam, PGO-IM, "Carry" (NBER Working Paper No. 19325)

    Craig Burnside, Duke University and NBER, and Jeremy Graveline, University of Minnesota, "Exchange Rate Determination, Risk Sharing and the Asset Market View" (NBER Working Paper No. 18646)

    Philippe Martin, Sciences Po, and Thomas Philippon, New York University and NBER, "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone"

    Mark Aguiar, Princeton University and NBER, and Manuel Amador, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and NBER, "Take the Short Route: How to Repay and Restructure Sovereign Debt with Multiple Maturities" (NBER Working Paper No. 19717)

    Atish Ghosh, Mahvash Qureshi, and Charalambos Tsangarides, International Monetary Fund, "Friedman Redux: External Adjustment and Exchange Rate Flexibility"

    Michael Devereux, University of British Columbia and NBER, and David Cook, HKUST, "Exchange Rate Flexibility under the Zero Lower Bound: The Need for Forward Guidance"

Summaries of these papers may be found at: http://www.nber.org/confer/2014/IFMs14/summary.html.

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