NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Foreign Bank Entry and Business Volatility: Evidence from U.S. States and Other Countries

Donald Morgan, Philip Strahan

NBER Working Paper No. 9710
Issued in May 2003
NBER Program(s):   CF   EFG   IFM   ME

Theory suggests that bank integration (financial integration generally) can magnify or dampen the business cycles, depending on the importance of shocks to firm collateral versus shocks to the banking sector. In this paper, we show empirically that bank integration across U.S. states over the late 1970s and 1980 dampened economic volatility within states. Internationally, however, we find that foreign bank integration, which advanced widely during the 1990s, has been either unrelated to volatility of firm investment spending or positively related to that volatility. The results suggest the possibility that business spending may become more volatile as countries open their banking sectors to foreign entry.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w9710

Published: Donald P. Morgan & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Foreign Bank Entry and Business Volatility: Evidence from U.S. States and Other Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Antonio Ahumada & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking Market Structure and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 8, pages 241-270 Central Bank of Chile.

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