NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data

Andrew Ang, Angela Maddaloni

NBER Working Paper No. 9677
Issued in May 2003
NBER Program(s):   AP

We examine the link between equity risk premiums and demographic changes using a very long sample over the twentieth century for the US, Japan, UK, Germany and France, and a shorter sample covering the last third of the twentieth century for fifteen countries. We find that demographic variables significantly predict excess returns internationally. However, the demographic predictability found in the US by past studies for the average age of the population does not extend to other countries. Pooling international data, we find that, on average, faster growth in the fraction of retired persons significantly decreases risk premiums. This demographic predictability of risk premiums is strongest in countries with well-developed social security systems and lesser-developed financial markets.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w9677

Published: Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January. citation courtesy of

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