NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets

Roberto Rigobon, Brian Sack

NBER Working Paper No. 9609*
Issued in April 2003
NBER Program(s):   IFM    AP

This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor' accounted for a considerable portion of the variance of these financial variables over the ten weeks leading up to the onset of war with Iraq.

*Published: Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005. "The effects of war risk on US financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.

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