TY  - JOUR
AU  - Carneiro,Pedro
AU  - Hansen,Karsten T.
AU  - Heckman,James J.
TI  - Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 9546
PY  - 2003
Y2  - March 2003
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9546
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9546.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Pedro Carneiro
Department of Economics
University College
Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom
E-Mail: p.carneiro@ucl.ac.uk

James J. Heckman
Department of Economics
The University of Chicago
1126 E. 59th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
Tel: 773/702-0634
Fax: 773/702-8490
E-Mail: jjh@uchicago.edu
AB  - This paper uses factor models to identify and estimate distributions of counterfactuals. We extend LISREL frameworks to a dynamic treatment effect setting, extending matching to account for unobserved conditioning variables. Using these models, we can identify all pairwise and joint treatment effects. We apply these methods to a model of schooling and determine the intrinsic uncertainty facing agents at the time they make their decisions about enrollment in school. Reducing uncertainty in returns raises college enrollment. We go beyond the  Veil of Ignorance' in evaluating educational policies and determine who benefits and who loses from commonly proposed educational reforms.
ER  -