TY  - JOUR
AU  - Chinn,Menzie D.
TI  - Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 9521
PY  - 2003
Y2  - March 2003
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9521
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9521.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Menzie D. Chinn
Dept. of Economics
University of Wisconsin
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Tel: 608/262-7397
Fax: 608/262-2033
E-Mail: mchinn@lafollette.wisc.edu
AB  - This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1-2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates do not exhibit the income asymmetry typically found in other studies of aggregate U.S. trade flows.
ER  -