@techreport{NBERw9521,
 title = "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined",
 author = "Menzie D. Chinn",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "9521",
 year = "2003",
 month = "March",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w9521",
 abstract = {This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1-2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates do not exhibit the income asymmetry typically found in other studies of aggregate U.S. trade flows.},
}