How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?
NBER Working Paper No. 9433
This paper tests whether macroeconomic news is transmitted to exchange rates via the transactions process and if so, what share occurs via transactions versus the traditional direct channel. We identify the link between order flow and macro news using a heteroskedasticity-based approach, a la Rigobon and Sack (2002). In both daily and intra-daily data, order flow varies considerably with macro news flow. At least half of the effect of macro news on exchange rates is transmitted via order flow.
Published: Evans, Martin D.D.,and Richard K. Lyons. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?". Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 88, Issue 1, April 2008, Pages 26-50