Welfare Reform and Non-Marital Fertility in the 1990s: Evidence from Birth Records

Theodore Joyce, Robert Kaestner, Sanders Korenman

NBER Working Paper No. 9406
Issued in December 2002
NBER Program(s):   CH   HE   PE

The 1996 Personal Responsibility Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act dramatically altered the economic incentive to bear children out-of-wedlock for economically disadvantaged women or couples most likely to avail themselves of welfare programs. We use data from vital statistics and a difference-in-differences research design to investigate whether state and federal welfare reform in the 1990s reduced rates of non-marital childbearing among women aged 19 to 39 at highest risk of welfare use, relative to women at lower risk. We find little consistent evidence for an effect of welfare reform on non-marital childbearing. This finding is similar to the literature that found little or mixed evidence for an effect of AFDC benefits. If anything, federal welfare reform has been associated with a small positive effect of two to three percent for white and black women ages 19 to 39.

(280 K)

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Published: Ted Joyce & Robert Kaestner & Sanders Korenman, 2003. "Welfare Reform and Non-Marital Fertility in the 1990s: Evidence from Birth Records," Advances in Economic Analysis & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 3(1), pages 1108-1108.

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