NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Aaron Tornell

NBER Working Paper No. 9391
Issued in December 2002
NBER Program(s):EFG, IFM

We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coeffcients in the 'Fama' regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the U.S., these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w9391

Published: Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and Aaron Tornell. "Exchange Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beliefs." Journal of International Economics 64, 2 (December 2004): 303-333.

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