Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception
We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coeffcients in the 'Fama' regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the U.S., these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates
Published: Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and Aaron Tornell. "Exchange Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beliefs." Journal of International Economics 64, 2 (December 2004): 303-333.