TY  - JOUR
AU  - Nordhaus,William D.
TI  - The Economic Consequences of a War in Iraq
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 9361
PY  - 2002
Y2  - December 2002
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9361
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9361.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
William D. Nordhaus
Yale University, Department of Economics
28 Hillhouse Avenue
Box 208264
New Haven, CT  06520-8264
Tel: 203/432-3598
Fax: 203/432-5779
E-Mail: william.nordhaus@yale.edu
AB  - Much has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict with Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost.  A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts.  This study reviews the potential costs of a conflict including the postwar expenses that might be required for occupation, humanitarian assistance, reconstruction, nation-building along with the implications for oil markets and macroeconomic activity.  It considers two potential scenarios that span the potential outcomes, ranging from a short and relatively conflict-free case to protracted conflict with difficult and expensive postwar reconstruction and occupation. The estimates of the cost to the United States over the decade following hostilities range from $100 billion to $1.9 trillion.
ER  -