NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

Andrew K. Rose

NBER Working Paper No. 9273
Issued in October 2002
NBER Program(s):International Trade and Investment

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard gravity' model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

download in pdf format
   (290 K)

email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w9273

Published: Rose, Andrew K. "Do We Really Know That The WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, 2004, v94(1,Mar), 98-114. citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Subramanian and Wei w10024 The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly
Goldberg and Pavcnik w12885 Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries
Li and Wu GATT/WTO Accession and Productivity
Baldwin and Taglioni w12516 Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations
Rose w10207 Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us