NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

Andrew K. Rose

NBER Working Paper No. 9273
Issued in October 2002
NBER Program(s):   ITI

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard gravity' model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w9273

Published: Rose, Andrew K. "Do We Really Know That The WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, 2004, v94(1,Mar), 98-114. citation courtesy of

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