TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baker,Malcolm
AU  - Stein,Jeremy C.
TI  - Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 8816
PY  - 2002
Y2  - February 2002
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w8816
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w8816.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Malcolm Baker
Baker Library 261
Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field
Boston, MA  02163
Tel: 617/495-6566
Fax: 617/496-5271
E-Mail: mbaker@hbs.edu

Jeremy C. Stein
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
20th Street and Constitution Ave., N.W.
Washington, DC 20551
E-Mail: jeremy.c.stein@frb.gov
AB  - We build a model that helps explain why increases in liquidity - such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher share turnover - predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational investors, who underreact to the information contained in order flow, thereby boosting liquidity. In the presence of short-sales constraints, unusually high liquidity is a symptom of the fact that the market is currently dominated by these irrational investors, and hence is overvalued. This theory can also explain how managers might successfully time the market for seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), by simply following a rule of thumb that involves issuing when the SEO market is particularly liquid. Empirically, we find that: i) aggregate measures of equity issuance and share turnover are highly correlated; yet ii) in a multiple regression, both have incremental predictive power for future equal-weighted market returns.
ER  -