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Laurence Ball, Robert Tchaidze
NBER Working Paper No. 8785*
Issued in February 2002
NBER Program(s): EFG
ME
---- Abstract -----
This paper seeks to understand the behavior of Greenspan's Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Some authors suggest that the Fed followed a simple 'Taylor rule,' while others argue that it deviated from such a rule because it recognized that the 'New Economy' permitted an easing of policy. We find that a Taylor rule based on inflation and unemployment does break down in the late 1990s. However, the Fed's behavior appears stable once one accounts for the falling NAIRU of the period. A rule based on inflation and the deviation of unemployment from the NAIRU captures the Fed's behavior through the entire period from 1987 to 2000.
*Published: Ball, Laurence and Robert R. Tchaidze. "The Fed And The New Economy," American Economic Review, 2002, v92(2,May), 108-115.
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