TY  - JOUR
AU  - Graham,John R.
AU  - Harvey,Campbell R.
TI  - Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 8678
PY  - 2001
Y2  - December 2001
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w8678
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w8678.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
John Graham
Duke University
Fuqua School of Business
100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0120
Tel: 919/660-7857
Fax: 919/660-8038
E-Mail: john.graham@duke.edu

Campbell R. Harvey
Duke University
Fuqua School of Business
Durham, NC 27708-0120
Tel: 919/660-7768
Fax: 919/660-8030
E-Mail: cam.harvey@duke.edu
AB  - We present new evidence on the distribution of the ex ante risk premium based on a multi-year survey of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) of U.S. corporations. Currently, we have responses from surveys conducted from the second quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2001. The results in this paper will be augmented as future surveys become available. We find direct evidence that the one-year risk premium is highly variable through time and 10-year expected risk premium is stable. In particular, after periods of negative returns, CFOs significantly reduce their one-year market forecasts, disagreement (volatility) increases and returns distributions are more skewed to the left. We also examine the relation between ex ante returns and ex ante volatility. The relation between the one-year expected risk premium and expected risk is negative. However, our research points to the importance of horizon. We find a significantly positive relation between expected return and expected risk at the 10-year horizon.
ER  -