NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices

Eli Ofek, Matthew Richardson

NBER Working Paper No. 8630
Issued in December 2001
NBER Program(s):   AP

This paper provides one potential explanation for the rise, persistence and eventual fall of internet stock prices. Specifically, we appeal to a model of heterogenous agents with varying degrees of beliefs about asset payoffs who are subject to short sales constraints. In this framework, it is possible that 'optimistic' investors overwhelm 'pessimistic' ones, leading to prices not reflecting fundamental values about cash flows summarized by aggregate beliefs. Empirical support for this explanation is provided by exploring the behavior of internet stock prices during the period January 1998 to November 2000. In particular, we document four important elements to our story: (i) the high level of internet stock prices given their underlying fundamentals, (ii) responses of stock prices to a shift towards potentially optimistic investors, (iii) empirical results consistent with shorting being at its maximum possible level for internet stocks, and (iv) the eventual fall, or bubble bursting, of internet stocks being tied to the increase in the number of sellers to the market via expiration of lockup agreements.

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Published:

  • Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06. ,
  • De Bondt, Werner (ed.) The Psychology of World Equity Markets. Volume 2, The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics series, vol. 187 An Elgar Reference Collection. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, MA: Elgar, 2005.

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