TY  - JOUR
AU  - Boersch-Supan,Axel
AU  - Ludwig,Alexander
AU  - Winter,Joachim
TI  - Aging and International Capital Flows
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 8553
PY  - 2001
Y2  - October 2001
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w8553
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w8553.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Axel H. Boersch-Supan
Munich Center for the Economics of Aging
Max Planck Institute
for Social Law and Social Policy
Amalienstrasse 33
80779 Munich
GERMANY
Tel: +49 (89) 3860-2355
Fax: 49 (89) 3860-2390
E-Mail: axel@boersch-supan.de

Alexander Ludwig
CMR
Department of Economics and Social Sciences
University of Cologne
Albertus-Magnus-Platz
50923 Cologne
GERMANY
E-Mail: ludwig@wiso.uni-koeln.de

Joachim Winter
Department of Economics
LMU
Ludwigstr. 28 (RG)
D-80539 Munich
Germany
E-Mail: winter@lmu.de
AB  - Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these international capital flows, we employ a multi-country overlapping generations model and combine it with long-term demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year horizon. Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries (such as Germany and Italy) to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closed-economy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.
ER  -