TY  - JOUR
AU  - Agenor,Pierre-Richard
AU  - Aizenman,Joshua
TI  - Savings and the Terms of Trade Under Borrowing Constraints
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 7743
PY  - 2000
Y2  - June 2000
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7743
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7743.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Pierre-Richard Agenor
School of Social Sciences, University of Mancheste
Manchester M139PL, United Kingdom
E-Mail: Pierre-richard.Agenor@manchester.ac.uk

Joshua Aizenman
Department of Economics;  E2
1156 High St.
University of California, Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz, CA  95064
Tel: 831/459-4791
Fax: 831/459-5077
E-Mail: jaizen@ucsc.edu
AB  - This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-96, indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings.
ER  -