TY  - JOUR
AU  - McCallum,Bennett T.
TI  - Alternative Monetary Policy Rules: A Comparison with Historical Settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 7725
PY  - 2000
Y2  - June 2000
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7725
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7725.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Bennett T. McCallum
Tepper School of Business, Posner 256
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
Tel: 412/268-2347
Fax: 412/268-6830
E-Mail: bm05@andrew.cmu.edu
AB  - This paper conducts counterfactual historical analysis of several monetary policy rules by contrasting actual settings of instrument variables with values that would have been specified by the rules in response to prevailing conditions.  Of particular interest is whether major policy mistakes, judged ex post, would have been prevented by candidate rules.  The rules studied include those of Taylor and McCallum, previously considered by Alison Stuart, plus several additional combinations of instrument and target variables.  The time spans examined are 1962-1998 for the U.S. and U.K., and 1972-1998 for Japan.  In addition to various substantive findings, the paper develops several methodological arguments.  A surprising result is that rules' messages are evidently more dependent upon the specification of their instrument than their target variable.
ER  -