TY  - JOUR
AU  - Gali,Jordi
AU  - Gertler,Mark
TI  - Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 7551
PY  - 2000
Y2  - February 2000
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7551
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7551.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Jordi Gali
Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
Ramon Trias Fargas 25
08005 Barcelona
SPAIN
Tel: 011-34-93-5422754
Fax: 011-34-93-5421860
E-Mail: jgali@crei.cat

Mark Gertler
Department of Economics
New York University
269 Mercer Street, 7th Floor
New York, NY 10003
Tel: 212/998-8931
Fax: 212/995-4186
E-Mail: mark.gertler@nyu.edu
AB  - We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of arginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting, while statistically significant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we conclude that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation.
ER  -