TY  - JOUR
AU  - DiNardo,John
AU  - Moore,Mark P.
TI  - The Phillips Curve is Back?  Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 7328
PY  - 1999
Y2  - August 1999
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7328
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7328.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
John DiNardo
Ford School of Public Policy
5238 Weill Hall
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI  48109-3091
Tel: 734/647-7843
Fax: 734/763-9181
E-Mail: jdinardo@umich.edu
AB  - Expanding on an approach suggested by Ashenfelter (1984), we extend the Phillips curve to an open economy and exploit panel data to estimate the textbook 'expectations augmented' Phillips curve with a market-based and observable measure of inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly data from 9 OECD countries and the simplest econometric specification, we estimate the Phillips curve with the same functional form for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. Our analysis suggests that although changing expectations played a role in creating the empirical failure of the Phillips Curve in the 1970s, supply shocks were at least as important.
ER  -