Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective

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This paper examines business cycles theoretically and empirically, with a quantitative study based on experience over the long run and in a cross section of countries. Several major questions in business cycle theory are explored. Theoretical concerns indicate that the properties of business cycle models depend not only on important structural aspects of the model such as money neutrality, labor market structure, and price adjustment, but also on the closure of the model in international markets. Econometric considerations suggest that more information about the country-specific versus universal features of cycles could be gleaned from the study of panel data. A review of business cycle properties in a sample of over a dozen countries is considered in light of these issues.

Published: Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, no. 2 (Spring 1999): 45-68.

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