TY  - JOUR
AU  - Irwin,Dougas A.
TI  - Did Late Nineteenth Century U.S. Tariffs Promote Infant Industries?  Evidence from the Tinplate Industry
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 6835
PY  - 1998
Y2  - December 1998
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6835
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6835.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Douglas A. Irwin
Department of Economics
Dartmouth College
Hanover, NH  03755
Tel: 603/646-2942
Fax: 603/646-2122
E-Mail: douglas.irwin@dartmouth.edu
AB  - This paper examines the role of late nineteenth century U.S. tariffs in promoting infant industries by focusing on the much heralded example of the tinplate industry.  After earlier failures, the tinplate industry became established and flourished after receiving protection in the McKinley tariff of 1890. Treating the entry and exit decisions of producers as endogenous, a probability model is estimated to determine the conditions under which domestic tinplate production will take place. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, in the absence of the McKinley duties, domestic tinplate production would have arisen about a decade later as U.S. iron and steel prices (comprising three-quarters of production costs) converged with those in Britain.  While the tariff accelerated the industry's development, welfare calculations suggest that protection does not pass a cost-benefit test.
ER  -