TY  - JOUR
AU  - Galor,Oded
AU  - Weil,David N.
TI  - Population, Technology, and Growth:  From the Malthusian Regime to the  Demographic Transition and Beyond
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 6811
PY  - 1998
Y2  - November 1998
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6811
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6811.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Oded Galor
Department of Economics
Brown University
Box B
Providence, RI 02912
Tel: 401/863-2117
Fax: 401/863-1970
E-Mail: oded_galor@brown.edu

David N. Weil
Department of Economics
Box B
Brown University
Providence, RI 02912
Tel: 401/863-1754
Fax: 401/863-1970
E-Mail: david_weil@brown.edu
AB  - This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence.  The economy endogenously evolves through three phases.  In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level.  In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly.  The economy endogenously undergoes a demographic transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed.  In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate or even negative, and income per capita rises rapidly. Two forces drive the transitions between regimes: First, technological progress is driven both by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the average level of education.  Second, technological progress creates a state of disequilibrium, which raises the return to human capital and induces patients to substitute child quality for quantity.
ER  -