Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis

Giancarlo Corsetti, Paolo Pesenti, Nouriel Roubini

NBER Working Paper No. 6783
Issued in November 1998
NBER Program(s):   IFM

This paper develops an interpretation of the Asian meltdown focused on moral hazard as the common source of overinvestment, excessive external borrowing, and current account deficits. To the extent that foreign creditors are willing to lend to domestic agents against future bail-out revenue from the government, unprofitable projects and cash shortfalls are re-financed through external borrowing. While public deficits need not be high before a crisis, the eventual refusal of foreign creditors to refinance the country's cumulative losses forces the government to step in and guarantee the outstanding stock of external liabilities. To satisfy solvency, the government must then undertake appropriate domestic fiscal reforms, possibly involving recourse to seigniorage revenues. Expectations of inflationary financing thus cause a collapse of the currency and anticipate the event of a financial crisis. The empirical section of the paper presents evidence in support of the thesis that weak cyclical performances, low foreign exchange reserves, and financial deficiencies resulting into high shares of non-performing loans were at the core of the Asian collapse.

download in pdf format
   (378 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (378 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w6783

Published: European Economic Review, Vol. 43 (1999): 1211-1236. citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Radelet and Sachs The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis
McKinnon and Pill Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"
Corsetti, Pesenti, and Roubini w6833 What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview
Corsetti, Pesenti, and Roubini w6834 What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate
Barro w8330 Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis
NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us