TY  - JOUR
AU  - Eichengreen,Barry
AU  - Rose,Andrew K.
TI  - Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 6370
PY  - 1998
Y2  - January 1998
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6370
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6370.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Barry Eichengreen
Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
549 Evans Hall 3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
Tel: 510/642-2772
Fax: 510/643-0926
E-Mail: eichengr@econ.Berkeley.edu

Andrew K. Rose
Haas School of Business Administration
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-1900
Tel: 510/642-6609
Fax: 510/642-4700
E-Mail: arose@haas.berkeley.edu
AB  - We analyze banking crises using a panel of macroeconomic and financial data for more than one hundred developing countries from 1975 through 1992.  We find that banking crises in emerging markets are strongly associated with adverse external conditions.  In particular Northern interest rates are strongly associated with the onset of banking crises in developing countries, even after taking into account a host of internal macroeconomic factors.  A one percent increase in Northern interest rates is associated with an increase in the probability of Southern banking crises of around three percent.  Our results also seem insensitive to the effects of differing exchange rate regimes, external debt burdens and domestic financial structures.
ER  -