TY  - JOUR
AU  - Blank,Rebecca M.
TI  - What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 6343
PY  - 1997
Y2  - December 1997
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6343
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6343.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Rebecca M. Blank
Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
Herbert C. Hoover Building, Room 4848
1401 Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC  20230
Tel: 202-482-3727
Fax: 202-482-0432
E-Mail: rblank@doc.gov
AB  - This paper uses state panel data to investigate changes in public assistance caseloads.  Compared to other research, it uses more extensive data, both across states and over time; it utilizes a particularly rich set of control variables; it investigates the different subcomponents of the AFDC program separately; and it investigates the extent to which changes in caseloads are driven by changes in take-up rates versus in eligibility.  The results indicate that an unexplained increase in AFDC-Basic caseloads started in the mid-1980s.  This trend appears to be driven by three underlying components: a rise in child-only cases, an increase in take-up rates over the early 1990s during the economic slowdown, and a long-term increase in eligibility which is not well explained by a large set of control variables.  In contrast, AFDC-UP caseload changes are relatively well-explained by the model in this paper and are far more responsive to economic factors.  Recent state policy changes are correlated with caseload declines, but more than half of their affect appears to precede their implementation, suggesting that other changes in client and caseworker behavior was occurring in states that adopted major policy changes.
ER  -