NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets

Harrison Hong, Jeremy C. Stein

NBER Working Paper No. 6324
Issued in December 1997
NBER Program(s):   AP   CF

We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts towards a central tendency which in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are not" sufficient to predict future short-term rates movements, as would be the case if the central" tendency was constant. However, since longer-maturity bond prices incorporate information" about the central tendency, longer-maturity bond yields can be used to predict future short-term" rate movements. We develop a two-factor model of the term-structure which implies that a" linear combination of any two rates can be used as a proxy for the central tendency. Based on" this central-tendency proxy, we estimate a model of the one-month rate which performs better" than models which assume the central tendency to be constant.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w6324

Published: Hong, Harrison and Jeremy C. Stein. "A Unified Theory Of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, And Overreaction In Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, 1999, v54(6,Dec), 2143-2184. citation courtesy of

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