TY  - JOUR
AU  - Diebold,Francis X.
TI  - The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 6290
PY  - 1997
Y2  - November 1997
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6290
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6290.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Francis X. Diebold
Department of Economics
University of Pennsylvania
3718 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA  19104-6297
Tel: 215/898-1507
Fax: 212/573-4217
E-Mail: fdiebold@sas.upenn.edu
AB  - Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to" improve.  Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and" falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed macroeconomic forecasting is poised for resurgence.
ER  -