TY  - JOUR
AU  - Collins,William J.
AU  - O'Rourke,Kevin H.
AU  - Williamson,Jeffrey
TI  - Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 6059
PY  - 1997
Y2  - June 1997
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6059
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6059.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
William J. Collins
Department of Economics
Vanderbilt University
VU Station B #351819
2301 Vanderbilt Place
Nashville, TN 37235-1819
Tel: 615/322-3428
Fax: NA
E-Mail: william.collins@vanderbilt.edu

Kevin H. O'Rourke
All Souls College
Oxford University
Oxford OX1 4AL, UK
Tel: + 44 (0)1865 279 348
Fax: 353-1-6772503
E-Mail: kevin.orourke@all-souls.ox.ac.uk

Jeffrey G. Williamson
350 South Hamilton Street #1002
Madison, WI 53703
Tel: 608-441-0023
Fax: 608-204-0783
E-Mail: jwilliam@fas.harvard.edu
AB  - Trade theorists have come to understand that their theory is ambiguous on the question: Are trade and factor flows substitutes?  While this sounds like an open invitation for empirical research, hardly any serious econometric work has appeared in the literature.  This paper uses history to fill the gap.  It treats the experience of the Atlantic economy between 1870 and 1940 as panel data with almost seven hundred observations.  When shorter run business cycles and  long swings' are extracted from the panel data, substitutability is soundly rejected.  When secular relationships are extracted over longer time periods and across trading partners, once again substitutability is soundly rejected.  Finally, the paper explores immigration policy and finds that policy makers never behaved as if they viewed trade and immigration as substitutes.
ER  -