Public Information and the Persistence of Bond Market Volatility
NBER Working Paper No. 5446
We examine the reaction of daily bond prices to the release of government macroeconomic news. These news releases are of interest because they are released on periodic, preannounced dates and because they cause substantial bond market volatility. The news component of volatility is not positively autocorrelated on these dates, since the news is released at a specific moment in time. We find that (1) expected returns on the short end of the bond market are significantly higher on these announcement dates, and (2) the persistence pattern of daily volatility is quite different around these days.
Published: Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 47, no. 3 (March 1998): 315-337.