@techreport{NBERw5437,
 title = "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators",
 author = "Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "5437",
 year = "1996",
 month = "January",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w5437",
 abstract = {We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes.  We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation.  We examine the composition of the debt as well as its level, and a variety of other macroeconomic factors, external and foreign.  Crashes tend to occur when: output growth is low; the growth of domestic credit is high; and the level of foreign interest rates is high.  A low ratio of FDI to debt is consistently associated with a high likelihood of a crash.},
}