NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Momentum Strategies

Louis K. C. Chan, Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Josef Lakonishok

NBER Working Paper No. 5375
Issued in December 1995
NBER Program(s):   AP

We relate the predictability of future returns from past returns to the market's underreaction to information, focusing on past earnings news. Past return and past earnings surprise each predict large drifts in future returns after controlling for the other. There is little evidence of subsequent reversals in the returns of stocks with high price and earnings momentum. Market risk, size and book-to- market effects do not explain the drifts. Security analysts' earnings forecasts also respond sluggishly to past news, especially in the case of stocks with the worst past performance. The results suggest a market that responds only gradually to new information.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w5375

Published: Journal of Finance (December 1996).

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