TY  - JOUR
AU  - Estrella,Arturo
AU  - Mishkin,Frederic S.
TI  - The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Role in Monetary Policy    for The European Central Bank
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 5279
PY  - 1998
Y2  - March 1998
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w5279
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w5279.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Arturo Estrella
Department of Economics
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Troy, NY  12180
Tel: 518-276-2049
E-Mail: estrea@rpi.edu

Frederic S. Mishkin
Columbia University
Graduate School of Business
Uris Hall 817
3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
Tel: 212-854-3488
Fax: 212/662-8474
E-Mail: fsm3@columbia.edu
AB  - This paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both Europe and the United States.  The results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread,  but it unlikely to be the only determinant. In addition, there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation.  The yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which, along with other information, can be used to help guide European monetary policy.
ER  -